Open Season

I hope you all slept well last night, unlike me, who was tossing and turning all night like a 10-year-old on Christmas Eve.

We've got the new-look Celtics facing the Pistons, Philly taking on the defending champion Knicks, and the WCF rematch between the Spurs and Thunder.

Personally, I don't care about any of these games. I'm focused entirely on the Timberwolves-Heat and Warriors-Lakers games tomorrow.

Now would be a really great time for me to get into my predictions for the season: who I anticipate making the Finals, All-Stars, award races, you name it. I'm not going to do that, though, because ESPN will have a top 10 MVP candidates article out tomorrow morning, and they're just going to say the same names we've seen the last three years: Shai, Tatum, Luka, Brown, Embiid, Jokic, Wemby, blah blah blah.

Nobody really cares about that, though. We all know MVP this year is going to Wemby after the insane media-driven MVP push for Wemby at the end of last season. And we certainly know that even if Luka averages 50 all season, the first All-NBA-caliber player he faces who scores 20+ will immediately remove him from MVP contention because he's bad on defense.

Little side note here: I don't think Luka is necessarily an awful defender. Statistically, he's been average in recent years, but he could do better. Not that defense ever prevented James Harden from getting an MVP, but I'll stop here because analyzing Luka's defensive prowess as it relates to an MVP race is a larger project than I have time for today.

Instead of providing insight on the MVP race or giving you my way-too-early end-of-season analysis, why don't I just key in on the storylines I'm going to be watching all year long? Here are five we can take a look at.

Honorary slot for Ben Simmons. Rest now Brother. We have the watch, and I'll see you in Valhalla.

Wishing the Young Socialite a full recovery. I genuinely love Ben Simmons. I followed him from LSU through the Philly era. Once he was in Brooklyn, and even after Brooklyn, I couldn't bear to watch. I'm not going to blame all of it on Doc Rivers, but I have a feeling he isn't totally innocent in all of this.

Brandin Podziemski

Now, sports fans, I don't want you to slander me based on this name alone. The general consensus is that The Pythagorean Theorem is buns, ass, washed, whatever you want to call him. If you know anything about Player Efficiency Rating (PER), you'll know that the league average, as calculated by Basketball Reference, is 15. B-Podz finished last season at exactly 15. His advanced metrics all come out to a wash. He is... average.

Now, Podz also managed to get a five-year, $110 million extension with the Warriors this offseason. That contract extension, including the mutual fifth-year option, is a vote of confidence that Podz has not reached his ceiling and is expected to be a starting-caliber player. It's also a contract that gives Golden State a nice discount if he manages to break out into an All-Star or even All-NBA-caliber player.

I think an extension was the right choice for the front office. It's a vote of confidence in the future as the legendary Warriors team of antiquity (like 4–10 years ago) slowly slips away with time. At the same time, this contract gives Golden State enough relative value to make some roster adjustments and bring in some great players.

He's not the most explosive guy, but considering the drastic changes he made over the offseason (new cut, mouthguard chewing, and adopting Curry's mannerisms), he could always take off like a rocket.

Golden State extended Steph after his third season, in which he had spent almost the entire year sidelined with an ankle injury. That makes me think Golden State has a familiar willingness when it comes to guards, where they're comfortable holding on in hopes of upside. It's almost worth wondering if Podz is getting the same treatment in hopes of a similar outcome.

Now... Is Podz anywhere near Steph Curry? No, and I can't emphasize this enough: No. But I do still think he's someone to watch, at least to see what could happen.

I'll be watching The Pythagorean Theorem to see which side of the coin he ultimately lands on after this season, but I personally expect him to improve on his 14 PPG and settle somewhere between 17–20 PPG.

The Knicks

This feels like a given. Everyone should keep their eyes on the Knicks. We know they won the chip last year. If you've heard a single sentence uttered by Stephen A. Smith, Ben Stiller, Timothée Chalamet, Spike Lee, or literally anybody from the broader Northeast since July, you will know this.

I think it should be made clear that I'm not hate-watching the Knicks. I'll be watching for a couple of things. Mainly, will they be capable of a repeat? The East has essentially leveled up since the Knicks won the ring. Philly built the A-team, Toronto brought in Kawhi, and Brooklyn Net Egor Dëmin put on 15 pounds over the offseason.

Everybody has done something to improve their chances of toppling the Knicks, and that's before we even touch on the West.

The Knicks took a huge loss with Mitchell Robinson leaving, but they did make somewhat of a baby step in bringing in Andre Drummond. Obviously, depth is going to be a challenge, like it was last year. KAT also fought with the Knicks' front office over an extension this offseason, and I could foresee some chemistry problems there. Based on what I understand about the financial stall, KAT feels that the Knicks undervalue him and is expecting an extension that reflects his on-court skill set.

But I think one name echoes in the minds of all those Knicks players and fans as a truly credible threat to their chances.

The Haliban.

Tyrese and the Pacers' dark magic were a legitimate threat to the Knicks the last time Tyrese was healthy, and with him coming back this season, I think there could be some interesting playoff implications from having a healthy Pacers team back in the mix.

The East itself is going to have one of the most interesting playoff races of the modern era. The entirety of the Atlantic Division, minus the Nets, will be playoff contenders before we even factor in teams like the Pistons, Cavs, and Pacers, or even what the Wizards could do, along with Bam and Giannis in Miami if they can figure out the chemistry.

For what all of that is worth, the East is wide open, which makes the Knicks' path to a possible repeat incredibly challenging and volatile.

I can't confidently say the Knicks are a favorite to win the East. I can't confidently say anyone can pick a favorite there. I'll be watching the Knicks to see how they stack up against an incredible Eastern Conference and to identify any potential gaps that could hurt them come playoff time.

Chicago Bulls

Here is where I'm at with the Bulls. I'm still not convinced the Bulls are close to being a competent playoff team. Before their roster got decimated by injury last season, I thought they could maybe make the play-in. They did not get close.

Over the offseason, Billy Donovan announced his departure, which was a hard blow to the team. They brought in Tiago Splitter, who did what he could with the Blazers last year. They also brought in Nic Claxton, which is a decision I'm about 50/50 on, and they swapped Rob Dillingham for Buddy Hield. I have my reservations about that, but I certainly understand the decision they made.

Now for the good news.

Caleb Wilson looks fantastic. Matas Buzelis looks fantastic. The prodigy Tre Jones looks incredible, as always.

The Bulls are a young team in a very good spot. I expect Norm Powell to elevate them, and Josh Giddey's playstyle is only going to highlight the abilities of everyone else.

I don't have much to say. You can summarize the Bulls easily: close, but still a ways away.

I'm watching the Bulls to see them put together a 40-win season. I want to see everyone stay as healthy as possible. I want to see how they handle life post-Billy Donovan. I want to see more minutes for Tre Jones, and I want to see Matas Buzelis make an All-Star appearance. Little bit of a reach, but I think he's capable.

I just want pure hoops, and I think Chicago can give you that.

Luka Dončić

I touched on this earlier when discussing the MVP race. We're going to dive in a little.

The Lakers are in a crazy spot, and at the center of it all is Luka Dončić. We knew LeBron was leaving eventually, either to another team, like we saw, or into retirement. We knew it was coming, and the absolute fleece that Rob Pelinka was able to work out in getting Luka for AD to set LA up for the post-Bron era was some serious "sell me this pen" shit.

Obviously, the trade was larger and more complicated than that, but it generated more buzz around the NBA being scripted than Ayesha Curry did after the 2016 Finals.

But why Luka specifically? Why not the Lakers as a whole?

Well, it's simple. Besides the pieces they already had in Luka, Austin Reaves (the GOAT), and Jarred Vanderbilt (shoutout Vando), the rest of the roster looks like it was built in a 2K expansion draft.

I'll give them some credit here and say this is a far more competent roster in practice than on paper, but it's underwhelming for a team that's expected to be in the playoffs, especially one with an offensive engine like Luka.

I love the addition of Walker Kessler as an offensive threat and defensive anchor in the paint. Quentin Grimes is a worthy addition as well. Can't speak for the bench, though.

All of this means that Luka, as the first option, is going to need an incredible single-season performance, along with a huge production jump from AR, to make this a competitive basketball team.

So what does all of this mean for Luka?

Personally, I think it means another crack at the MVP race. Does he win it? Probably not, but I'm optimistic he makes a stronger case than he did last year. There was a strong consensus among fans last year that he was deserving, although we can probably chalk this up to Shai-Jokić fatigue and a better offensive performance than Wemby.

I'm not diving into the MVP race as a whole because it's such a convoluted system. I think it awards the right person almost every year, but at the same time, it will completely reject people from contention for reasons that I don't believe are appropriate.

Luka finished fourth in MVP voting last year after an incredible offensive season, but the media seemed to reject the narrative that he was deserving because of his lackluster defense. I feel he certainly made a case to earn at least one first-place vote.

Of course, this begs the question of how much defense should matter in MVP voting, considering previous winners and their aversion to defense (looking at you, Honey Buns). It also raises the question of what role defense should play in the MVP race when the DPOY award already exists.

I think historically, the MVP has rewarded offensive creation, with defense playing a much less important role. I think that explains many MVP winners, like Steve Nash (not to say Nash was a bad defender, but that his offensive impact was so incredible that it outweighed any defensive criticism), and especially James "Honey Buns" Harden.

All of this is to say I'll be watching Luka Dončić this season to see what he can do with this Lakers team and whether he can make an incredible case for MVP despite the Lakers' potential shortcomings.

A New Era of Basketball

We are in a new era.

After years and years of the tanking era, Adam Silver finally put his little goblin foot down. In case you're unaware, I'll help you understand how the new rules, which go into effect this season, work.

At a glance, the lottery has expanded to 16 teams and is implementing its 3-2-1 system, although a better name is 2-3-1.

The teams with the three worst records receive two lottery balls (5.4% chance at the #1 pick), with a pick floor of 12th. So, the three worst teams are guaranteed a pick between 1–12.

The teams with the 4th–10th worst records receive three lottery balls (8.1% chance at the #1 pick), with no pick floor. They can finish anywhere from 1–16.

And finally, the play-in teams. The losers of the 7/8 seed play-in games receive one lottery ball (2.7% chance at the #1 pick). They can also finish anywhere from 1-16.

You also have the pick restrictions: a team can't receive the #1 pick two years in a row, and no team can receive a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts.

But, and this is the best part, Adam Silver himself has the authority to adjust lottery odds, change draft positions, and fine any teams caught tanking.

This is just at a glance, and you can find other sources that go much deeper into the rule changes themselves, including alterations to rules surrounding trading picks.

It's quite in-depth, and obviously something the NBA had been looking really hard at for a while. For the most part, I think they've created a smarter system than what was previously in place.

If this means anything at all, it probably just means the Kings are fucked.

Teams do tank, and it can be sneaky or blatant, but at the same time, some teams are just dogshit.

I think a smart choice by the NBA was to incentivize those horrible teams to fight for being the fourth-worst team in the NBA instead of just being the worst.

I'm still waiting for NBA Twitter to come up with something catchy to call this because it is far from being a mid-off. Maybe we can call it a dogshit decathlon. I don't know.

In any case, I don't think the problem is solved.

Now, a system is in place where you can compete in the play-in, or you can get a lottery ball and odds at a better pick. I think we will genuinely get to experience the mid-off in that regard.

I mean, I personally am very excited for a Suns and Trail Blazers game in late March where the objective is to hold onto the 11 seed.

Of course, Adam Silver would likely step in here, stealing their draft positions and giving them to the Thunder and Spurs, though.

I think if there's anything to watch out for with the new tanking rules, it's how much tanking is going to resemble point shaving. So, if you're a fan of that, more power to you, I guess.

I'll be watching to see how teams handle the play-in tournament. If winning the play-in (especially as a 7 or 8 seed going into it lottery ball-less) means losing out on a possible top-10 or even top-five pick, how much incentive is there to take that risk?

Think about someone like the Rockets, right?

If the Rockets are the 7 seed in the play-in, do you want to win that seed, face off against the Thunder or Spurs, possibly get swept, and end up with the 18th pick? Or would you rather take your chances with those lottery balls and possibly end up with good draft position?

The odds are super low for the #1 pick, but even a good roll that gives you #12 is a step up.

It'll be something for teams to weigh, and something I'll be watching.

I think it's going to be a really fun year for basketball. The preseason was insane, and if you missed any of that, you can check out this video for a recap.

Will things be the same as last year? Absolutely. But will they be different?

Not even a little bit.

Unfortunately, that's just where the league is at. Hopefully, we just get to bear witness to some incredible mid-off games with box scores straight out of the dead-ball era, and maybe, just maybe, we'll get to see another iteration of the Kevin Durant burner account saga.

Happy Opening Day!